... in financials, in housing, in the market as a whole. Does this statement mean that I am Nostradamous of the Amazing Kreskin and know where the bottom is? No. In addition to not being either of those guys, I'm also NOT a technician.
I am basing my pessimism on the lack of pessimism on Wall Street. Take Yahoo! for example. Chairman Roy Bostock has the stones to defend his actions in the proposed merger with Microsoft. He claims that $30 a share wasn't a "compelling offer." Yahoo! just doesn't get it. Tney are are puzzle at a yard sale with a couple of pieces missing. This is not the Yahoo! of 1997 that ruled the search roost.
GM lost $15 billion in the second quarter, nearly twice as much as Ford... and still they won't throw in the towel and declare bankruptcy. Bankruptcy could give them the breathing room they need to take the drastic measures that they need to take in order to survive.
The peso is gaining strength against the dollar. Oil is at $125.10/bbl and people are relieved.
My point is that the market is delusional. Wave after wave of bad news hits the wires and the markets shrugs it off. Supposedly, it's all been priced into stocks. If the four horsemen of the Apocalypse descended, the talking heads would claim that this was priced in. Note: I would myself call such an event the bottom.
There will be no bottom until the optimism has been killed. When Cramer turns bearish, that might be a good indicator of the bottom. Or maybe not. The famous BusinessWeek cover, "The Death of Equities" came in 1979, three years before the '82 bull market began.
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