Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The death of buy and hold? Bah, humbug!

Many would-be Cassandras, CNBC included, have been beating their breasts about this topic. Fast Money's Jeff Macke has pronounced the long-term investor dead. Is this true? If not, why would smart guys like Jeff Macke say things like that? Let's think about it.

The market's down a lot.
Many industries are on the verge of bankruptcy.
Some companies are at decades low valuations. The government is printing dollars at a record pace.
The rules of the game seem to be changing on a daily basis.

It looks really bleak doesn't it?

That's why this is the best time to be a long-term investor. You're probably not going to see such pessimism about the global financial system for many years. While I still think the S & P 500 is not historically cheap, there are several large cap companies that are on sale. I'm loading up on GE, GS, JNJ, KO, and other big names.

It doesn't matter if you're in the value or growth camp, there are enormous bargains out there. It's almost like money lying in the street if you're patient. In 5-10 years, some of these companies will have failed, but many more will have recovered and making money hand over fist.

I plan on being first in line when they start handing out the cash.

This is not to say that we've hit a bottom. I don't know. I'm buying now regardless. My local Linens N' Things is having a closeout sale. Every week the deals get better, but there's less of the good stuff. Don't ignore 50% off stocks because you think that next week, stocks will be 75%. They might be, but probably not the good ones.

No comments: