Tuesday, October 16, 2007

China is a value play

This may seem like sacrilege, but it's true. China is just getting started. This bull has a long life ahead. I know that the market has been red hot. Don't ignore that. In fact, don't invest just yet in China. Wait for a pullback. It'll come. Just put FXI or CAF on your watchlist and be patient. If you're interested in individual stocks, take a look at PTR. It's trading at discount to both Western integrated oil & gas companies and Chinese ones.
I know that Warren Buffett just sold his stake. Many would say that he did so because he sees a top. I don't know why he sold. He's held this position for five years and has made seven times his money. Maybe he just decided that he wouldn't get greedy. Maybe he sold because he found a better place for Berkshire's capital. My point is, do not buy or sell these stocks or any stocks for any reason other than personal ones. Look at your portfolio and see how it fits.
There will be selloffs. Please don't get scared out of your position because everyone is predicting certain doom or an overheating of the market.

4 comments:

Sivaram V said...

How can you say PTR is undervalued compared to other supermajors? I don't follow the energy industry closely so I'm not sure about valuation based on reserves, future prospects, and stuff like that, but simply on earnings, PTR is around 2x XOM, BP, PBR, and the like. If Yahoo Finance numbers are correct, PTR has a P/E of 20+, which means that PTR better be a growth stock that keeps growing (its multiple basically puts it in the group of MSFT, GE, etc). How many megacap cyclicals can keep growing that fast?

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